Achieving "Eight Increases" in Winter Wheat Helps Decrease Inflation Expectations

Compared to the southern crops that are experiencing droughts and draughts, the northern wheat situation is clearly better than expected. The Ministry of Agriculture said yesterday that this year's increase in summer grain production is a foregone conclusion, and that winter wheat will achieve "an eight-point increase."

Song Hongyuan, director of the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, said in an interview with the "First Financial and Financial Daily" that the harvest of winter wheat will play an active role in stabilizing the market and prices.

According to news from the Ministry of Agriculture, as of June 20, the harvest of wheat in the country's summer harvest has reached 317 million mu, and the harvest rate has passed 90 percent. The bulk of this year's summer grain has already arrived. From field surveys and actual collections, the increase in summer grain production is a foregone conclusion, and winter wheat will increase by eight.

As of 2010, China's wheat production has increased for seven consecutive years. More than 90% of the national summer grain output is wheat, and winter wheat accounts for more than 90% of the wheat output. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2010, the total output of summer grain in the country was 12.31 million tons, of which winter wheat output was 108.79 million tons, an increase of nearly 1 million tons over the previous year.

The continuous drought in the winter and spring of this year at the end of last year once caused the market to worry very much about the production of this year's winter wheat. Under the high CPI situation, the reduction in winter wheat production will inevitably push up inflation expectations.

Practice has proved that this worry is a bit excessive.

In an interview with a reporter from the First Financial Daily, the Dialect, the deputy director of the Department of Agriculture and Economics of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that according to the meteorological data in mid-February, the drought-reduced area and rainfall in the spring this year were the lowest in nearly a decade. In the year, it belongs to “dry land without drought” and the weather condition is relatively good.

Another reason for the increase in winter wheat is the further expansion of the sown area. According to the agricultural dispatch of the Ministry of Agriculture, the total area of ​​winter wheat planted in the country reached 340 million mu last year, an increase of 1 million mu over the previous year.

The Ministry of Agriculture believes that the increase in summer grain production marks a good start for grain production, which is of special significance for ensuring stable supply prices and managing inflation expectations.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the total grain output in 2010 was 546.41 million tons, an increase of 15.59 million tons over the previous year, an increase of 2.9%. It is worth noting that although winter wheat production increased by 1 million tons, the summer crop was still reduced by 0.3%, early rice production was reduced by 6.1%, and autumn grain production was increased by 4.8%. Through comparison, we can see that this summer's grain situation is better than last year.

Song Hongyuan stated that China's wheat production accounts for about 20% of the total domestic grain output. The increase in wheat will play a positive role in stabilizing the market and stabilizing prices.

“In recent years, due to soaring costs of grain, including gasoline, fertilizers, water, and labor, food prices have been on an upward path. Food production is determined by the volatility of food prices. Increased output will help maintain a kind of food price. Stable situation." Song Hongyuan said.

Song Hongyuan also stated that although summer grain growth has become a foregone conclusion and winter wheat has achieved eight consecutive increases, it is still impossible to judge whether the annual grain output can achieve eight consecutive increases.

The Ministry of Agriculture also requested yesterday to further grasp the early autumn grain, especially the autumn grain. In some areas, the “drought and drought changes rapidly” have had an adverse effect on the normal growth and development of rice, vegetables, and cotton in field crops. The Ministry of Agriculture believes that the current autumn grain crops are still at the seedling stage. By timely draining and reducing soil waterlogging and strengthening field management, it can effectively promote the transformation and upgrading of the seedlings and minimize the impact of disasters.

According to the latest agricultural survey conducted by the Ministry of Agriculture, it is expected that the area of ​​early rice this year will increase by more than 100 million mu over the same period of last year. Early rice in the main producing areas is at the booting and heading stage, and seedling growth is better than last year.

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