Lin Yifu: Beware of international grain prices affecting China’s Zhang Xiaoqiang: The import of staple foods is less than 1% of domestic production, affecting Chen Xiaowen: More than a billion people consume more than 500 million tons of food each year. If they do not rely on themselves to satisfy their supply, the world’s people will save. At present, autumn grain harvest is imminent, and domestic food prices have ushered in a new time node, and the autumn harvest may lead to a bumper harvest. However, at the International Symposium on Rural Finance held on the 14th, experts such as Lin Yifu and Chen Xiwen pointed out that in the process of globalization, we should be alert to the large fluctuations in international food prices and that such price fluctuations should be transmitted to the Mainland. From the domestic point of view, the structural contradiction of grain supply is still very prominent, and it is necessary to further increase the production capacity to meet the demand.
Warnings on price transmission still need to be guarded against a new record of international grain prices that have just eased. The wheat futures price of the US CBOT (Chicago Futures Exchange) rose to its highest level within a month on Monday after it hit its highest value since September 2008 on August 6. The Chicago corn price also closed higher on Monday, with the main contract setting the highest since October 2008. In addition, the US soybean main contract rose to the highest point of the year at 1056.60 cents per bushel on September 8.
Some analysts believe that from the perspective of capital flows and market performance in the past two months, agricultural products have emerged from the law of plate rotation, such as the start of the 2006 agricultural bull market. The first was CBOT wheat, followed by CBOT corn. CBOT soybeans, along with corn, culminated in the “big market of agricultural products†due to the effect of the parity effect.
Lin Yifu, senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank, stated at the International Symposium on Rural Finance on the 14th that many large developing countries are faced with the problem of insufficient supply of land resources and water resources, while stressing their own production to meet domestic needs. At the same time, we must also explore how to use international trade to partially solve the problem of food demand. In particular, for some agricultural product exporters, if domestic exports are reduced, taking measures to intervene in trade to reduce exports may cause large fluctuations in international prices. This kind of price fluctuation information will be transmitted to the country, so that the domestic food prices will follow.
Jinpeng Futures Deputy General Manager Yu Mengguo told the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that each price increase of agricultural products is related to the issue of supply. Russia has already had a problem. Now look at Australia and Argentina. If they also have problems, International The rising food prices in the market will cause greater pressure on the domestic market.
However, Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at the fourth Summer Davos Forum on the 14th that the food market at home and abroad is less relevant. In addition to soybeans in China, imports of wheat, corn, rice and other varieties are very small, less than 1% of domestic production. As major food varieties are self-sufficient, domestic food price changes are largely unaffected by the international market.
The current situation is more than sufficient and the structural contradictions are outstanding. Zhang Xiaoqiang said that this year, China's summer grain output has remained at the level of last year; the area of ​​autumn grain has increased compared to last year. At present, it is growing well and it is likely to capture a bumper crop. If no major natural disasters occur, this year China will have the condition to obtain a better harvest based on the increase of grain production for six consecutive years. At present, the basic balance of the total balance of grain supply and demand in China has not changed, and it can ensure that there will not be major fluctuations in the grain market.
Although the market generally believe that autumn harvest is expected this year, but at the International Symposium on Rural Finance held on the 14th, Chen Xiwen, deputy director of the Office of Central Financial Leadership Group and director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group Office, reminded that behind grain harvest, food supply The structural contradictions are still prominent.
He said that although the data shows that China's grain output reached 530 million tons last year, and the total domestic grain demand is about 520 million tons, there is a surplus in terms of total amount. “But from the structural point of view, the contradiction is very prominent.â€
In Chen Xiwen's view, this contradiction is first and foremost the unbalanced development among regions. The output of China’s water-rich local areas is becoming less and less. The long-established Nanliangbei transport is being replaced by changes in the northern grain and southern transport. Sustainable development is not an ideal thing.
Some experts believe that this trend of development of the North Grain and the South has deviated from the regional distribution of China's water resources. In the long run, it will further increase the opportunity cost of increasing grain production in China. Jiang Sansan, director of the State Council Development Research Center, had previously mentioned at a symposium organized by the China Land Institute that although the red line of 1.8 billion mu of arable land was saved in quantity, the grain production landscape is changing, and many grain production areas are changing. It became a sales area and food production shifted to high-cost areas.
According to statistics, the proportion of grain output in the North in the country increased from 40.6% in 1980 to 52.5% in 2007, an increase of 11.9 percentage points. The proportion of rice production in the north to the national level reached 17.7%, an increase of nearly 11% from 1980.
In addition to unreasonable regional development, Chen Xiwen believes that the grain structure of food is also very unbalanced. Some varieties of China's imports are increasing day by day. Take soybean as an example. Last year, China’s soybean imports reached a record-breaking 42.55 million tons, and foreign agencies estimated that China’s imported soybeans accounted for 53% of global soybean imports in 2009/10.
Relevant research also shows that at present, China's three major grain crops, rice, wheat and corn, the proportion of high-quality and high-end varieties in total output is low, and a high proportion of domestic high-end consumer demand depends on imports, while low-end varieties have insufficient demand and excess production. The problem.
Chen Xiwen said that this situation shows that China's agricultural development and demand still have many areas that are not suited to it and need to further increase production capacity. “A country with a population of more than 1 billion and needs to consume more than 500 million tons of food each year, if not relying on its own To satisfy supply, no one in the world can save us."
Trends are likely to rise in the future Food prices are not easy to rise In the context of continuous “refreshing†of international food prices, domestic agricultural product futures markets continue to be bullish.
Business Society analyst Song Zhichao told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that from the current soybean, corn, wheat and other market conditions, the entire international agricultural market is still in short supply, the agricultural futures market outlook will continue to be strong.
Since the beginning of this year, the prices of rice, corn, and wheat have increased rapidly. As the large-scale harvest of the autumn crop is about to begin, when will the next high point occur?
According to Chen Shuwei, a senior analyst at East Iger, overall, grain prices will continue to rise. However, the concentrated selling of some time ago has played a role in curbing food prices, so there will be no significant increase in domestic short-term.
Song Zhichao predicted that due to the impact of higher corn futures in the United States, coupled with good downstream farming demand, domestic corn futures will break the previous high point in late September and reach record highs after a short-term correction. As the weather became cooler and the doubles approached, the domestic flour market began to pick up. In some regions, the price of flour was raised, and the volume of goods taken by flour mills and feed mills increased significantly. Zheng Mai’s market will break the high point of 2580 yuan in early October. After continuing with the ton, it continued to oscillate higher.
Jiaoshan Wei, chief editor of China Grain Network Information, told the Economic Information Daily that the overall situation of autumn grain production is good. The main factor affecting grain prices in the future is demand. In the long run, the increase in demand will support the “easy ups and downs†of food prices.
Lin Yifu believes that, in addition to the population increase factor, the increase in food demand, there are factors such as changes in dietary structure and bio-energy demand caused by income increase. The demand for bioenergy is a big challenge. When the oil price reaches a certain level, it will lead to an increase in bioenergy production. This will have a competitive relationship with food production. On the one hand, there is competition for arable land, and on the other hand, direct use of competition. . According to the research, during the period from 2007 to 2008, the international grain price increase process was due in large part to the fact that a lot of food was transferred to produce bio-energy, resulting in insufficient food supply and rising food prices.
Warnings on price transmission still need to be guarded against a new record of international grain prices that have just eased. The wheat futures price of the US CBOT (Chicago Futures Exchange) rose to its highest level within a month on Monday after it hit its highest value since September 2008 on August 6. The Chicago corn price also closed higher on Monday, with the main contract setting the highest since October 2008. In addition, the US soybean main contract rose to the highest point of the year at 1056.60 cents per bushel on September 8.
Some analysts believe that from the perspective of capital flows and market performance in the past two months, agricultural products have emerged from the law of plate rotation, such as the start of the 2006 agricultural bull market. The first was CBOT wheat, followed by CBOT corn. CBOT soybeans, along with corn, culminated in the “big market of agricultural products†due to the effect of the parity effect.
Lin Yifu, senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank, stated at the International Symposium on Rural Finance on the 14th that many large developing countries are faced with the problem of insufficient supply of land resources and water resources, while stressing their own production to meet domestic needs. At the same time, we must also explore how to use international trade to partially solve the problem of food demand. In particular, for some agricultural product exporters, if domestic exports are reduced, taking measures to intervene in trade to reduce exports may cause large fluctuations in international prices. This kind of price fluctuation information will be transmitted to the country, so that the domestic food prices will follow.
Jinpeng Futures Deputy General Manager Yu Mengguo told the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that each price increase of agricultural products is related to the issue of supply. Russia has already had a problem. Now look at Australia and Argentina. If they also have problems, International The rising food prices in the market will cause greater pressure on the domestic market.
However, Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at the fourth Summer Davos Forum on the 14th that the food market at home and abroad is less relevant. In addition to soybeans in China, imports of wheat, corn, rice and other varieties are very small, less than 1% of domestic production. As major food varieties are self-sufficient, domestic food price changes are largely unaffected by the international market.
The current situation is more than sufficient and the structural contradictions are outstanding. Zhang Xiaoqiang said that this year, China's summer grain output has remained at the level of last year; the area of ​​autumn grain has increased compared to last year. At present, it is growing well and it is likely to capture a bumper crop. If no major natural disasters occur, this year China will have the condition to obtain a better harvest based on the increase of grain production for six consecutive years. At present, the basic balance of the total balance of grain supply and demand in China has not changed, and it can ensure that there will not be major fluctuations in the grain market.
Although the market generally believe that autumn harvest is expected this year, but at the International Symposium on Rural Finance held on the 14th, Chen Xiwen, deputy director of the Office of Central Financial Leadership Group and director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group Office, reminded that behind grain harvest, food supply The structural contradictions are still prominent.
He said that although the data shows that China's grain output reached 530 million tons last year, and the total domestic grain demand is about 520 million tons, there is a surplus in terms of total amount. “But from the structural point of view, the contradiction is very prominent.â€
In Chen Xiwen's view, this contradiction is first and foremost the unbalanced development among regions. The output of China’s water-rich local areas is becoming less and less. The long-established Nanliangbei transport is being replaced by changes in the northern grain and southern transport. Sustainable development is not an ideal thing.
Some experts believe that this trend of development of the North Grain and the South has deviated from the regional distribution of China's water resources. In the long run, it will further increase the opportunity cost of increasing grain production in China. Jiang Sansan, director of the State Council Development Research Center, had previously mentioned at a symposium organized by the China Land Institute that although the red line of 1.8 billion mu of arable land was saved in quantity, the grain production landscape is changing, and many grain production areas are changing. It became a sales area and food production shifted to high-cost areas.
According to statistics, the proportion of grain output in the North in the country increased from 40.6% in 1980 to 52.5% in 2007, an increase of 11.9 percentage points. The proportion of rice production in the north to the national level reached 17.7%, an increase of nearly 11% from 1980.
In addition to unreasonable regional development, Chen Xiwen believes that the grain structure of food is also very unbalanced. Some varieties of China's imports are increasing day by day. Take soybean as an example. Last year, China’s soybean imports reached a record-breaking 42.55 million tons, and foreign agencies estimated that China’s imported soybeans accounted for 53% of global soybean imports in 2009/10.
Relevant research also shows that at present, China's three major grain crops, rice, wheat and corn, the proportion of high-quality and high-end varieties in total output is low, and a high proportion of domestic high-end consumer demand depends on imports, while low-end varieties have insufficient demand and excess production. The problem.
Chen Xiwen said that this situation shows that China's agricultural development and demand still have many areas that are not suited to it and need to further increase production capacity. “A country with a population of more than 1 billion and needs to consume more than 500 million tons of food each year, if not relying on its own To satisfy supply, no one in the world can save us."
Trends are likely to rise in the future Food prices are not easy to rise In the context of continuous “refreshing†of international food prices, domestic agricultural product futures markets continue to be bullish.
Business Society analyst Song Zhichao told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that from the current soybean, corn, wheat and other market conditions, the entire international agricultural market is still in short supply, the agricultural futures market outlook will continue to be strong.
Since the beginning of this year, the prices of rice, corn, and wheat have increased rapidly. As the large-scale harvest of the autumn crop is about to begin, when will the next high point occur?
According to Chen Shuwei, a senior analyst at East Iger, overall, grain prices will continue to rise. However, the concentrated selling of some time ago has played a role in curbing food prices, so there will be no significant increase in domestic short-term.
Song Zhichao predicted that due to the impact of higher corn futures in the United States, coupled with good downstream farming demand, domestic corn futures will break the previous high point in late September and reach record highs after a short-term correction. As the weather became cooler and the doubles approached, the domestic flour market began to pick up. In some regions, the price of flour was raised, and the volume of goods taken by flour mills and feed mills increased significantly. Zheng Mai’s market will break the high point of 2580 yuan in early October. After continuing with the ton, it continued to oscillate higher.
Jiaoshan Wei, chief editor of China Grain Network Information, told the Economic Information Daily that the overall situation of autumn grain production is good. The main factor affecting grain prices in the future is demand. In the long run, the increase in demand will support the “easy ups and downs†of food prices.
Lin Yifu believes that, in addition to the population increase factor, the increase in food demand, there are factors such as changes in dietary structure and bio-energy demand caused by income increase. The demand for bioenergy is a big challenge. When the oil price reaches a certain level, it will lead to an increase in bioenergy production. This will have a competitive relationship with food production. On the one hand, there is competition for arable land, and on the other hand, direct use of competition. . According to the research, during the period from 2007 to 2008, the international grain price increase process was due in large part to the fact that a lot of food was transferred to produce bio-energy, resulting in insufficient food supply and rising food prices.
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