Pig price high piglets may have two peaks during the year

High pig prices piglets are in short supply Chunjiang Plumbing Duck Prophet. Every price-sensitive period, the price of piglets will be abnormal. The reason is clear, the piglet market directly reflects the majority of farmers' cost levels and market outlook.

At present, Guangdong's piglet market has been booming and is basically in a state of supply shortage. In Yangchun, the hometown of piglets, the price of piglets has risen to the highest level in three years: 30 yuan weight of foreign three yuan piglet is about 590-600 yuan/head. Due to the huge amount of farming, the local piglet price is actually low in the province. It is understood that the price of piglets in Zhaoqing is about 620 yuan/head.

Xie Meng, a large-scale breeding sow of 800 sow stocks, introduced that the price of piglets has soared since the beginning of the first month of this year. On the second day of the lunar month (February 4th), the local price was 430 yuan per head, then rose steadily, and sometimes even rose by 30 yuan per day. On the 15th of the lunar month (February 17), it rushed to a high of 580 yuan. This means that the price of piglets has stayed at a high of 580 yuan for more than a month.

It doesn't seem too much to describe a quote with a crazy word. Xie Meng told reporters that although the price is high, the enthusiasm of the purchasers has never decreased. The problem is that the number of piglets on the market is obviously not enough to meet people's needs.

In fact, the current high price of piglets has a lot to do with the small supply of piglets. Many farmers told reporters that a considerable number of farms are plagued by diarrhoea and other diseases, and the protection provided by the relevant vaccines is not high, resulting in low productivity of sows. It is reported that the mortality rate of piglets in each field is different, and the serious field piglet mortality even reaches 80%, and the shortage of piglets is inevitable.

Farmers are cautious in stabilizing the sales of dual-variable stabilizing piglets, while the binary sow market remains basically stable.

On March 22, Jiang Zeming, a big farmer in Sihui, consulted for a pig price, and a 100-pound binary sow was priced at 1,600 yuan per head. He believes that compared with the current 8 yuan / kg of pig prices, sows market was significantly weaker. This reflects that most farmers gradually become rational and there is no longer any blind thinking.

According to reports, in 2007, the price of piglets reached 1,000 yuan/head, and the price of 40-50 pounds of sows had reached 2,800 yuan/head. In contrast, this year's binary gilt market is placid.

Xie Meng also introduced that the friends around him rarely supplement gilts, and the sow market has a large contrast with the piglet market. Many people are not particularly optimistic about the market after a year.

The cost and epidemic also inhibited many people's urge to expand. Jiang Zeming said that although the current price of pigs is high, the cost is unusually high. Only the drug money for each pig reaches 80-100 yuan, far exceeding the level of previous years. Due to the high mortality rate of piglets, many people are even forced to empty their sows. According to Xie Dengyang, president of the Association of Pig Breeding Associations, the market price of corn reached 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton over the previous year, and the raising household's corn cost per pig was increased by 100 yuan. After careful study, the average cost of raising households may reach 6.5 yuan/kg.

Many people in the industry also observed that at present, the actual pig slaughter volume has dropped sharply, but the number of herding sows is not small, which also inhibits many people from expanding the bar. It is understood that the main reason is that the most serious disease damage is piglets, not sows.

People are worried that if the number of sows is huge, once the epidemic has passed, it is very likely that the price of pigs will go down.

The data released by the Ministry of Agriculture on March 15 showed that by the end of February, there were 47.3 million heads of domestic sows, a decrease of 3.27% from the end of February last year and a decrease of 0.21% from January. According to the estimation of relevant departments, the sow population in our country needs to be maintained at around 41 million heads to maintain market balance.

Experts are optimistic that the price of pigs will rise in the year. How will the price of pigs go in the future?

At present, the factors that affect pig prices are still the most important factors for sow herds and diseases. Most people analyze that farmers with strong technical skills this year should be a bumper year.

At the end of February, Vice President of Wen's Group said in an interview with the Agricultural Finance Collection reporter that pig prices may remain high during the first half of this year.

Xie Dengyang also told reporters that he personally believes that pork prices will remain high throughout the year, but the specific increase will not be easy to say.

Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of live pig warning network, believes that pig prices will remain high throughout the year. He predicted that there may be two price peaks this year. The first time it may occur in May or June, the average price may exceed 8.5 yuan, and the second time will occur during the Spring Festival at the end of the year, the increase will increase even more, or reach 9 yuan/ jin.

Feng Yonghui believes that in March, there was a turning point in the national sow population, after which the sow population may increase. According to the law, one year later, pig prices will enter the down channel.

At present, pig prices in the country are all rising at a high price, but the exceptions in Henan and Jiangsu are mainly affected by the Shuanghui Clenbuterol case, and the local pigs cannot be shipped outside.

Feng Yonghui believes that the clenbuterol incident will not cause any significant impact on the national pig price. Even if it affects, it will only be a short-term effect because pork is a rigid demand and the market is clearly in short supply. In addition, the government handled the Shuanghui Clenbuterol and Sanlu milk powder incidents differently. In that year, the government conducted a thorough investigation of the entire industry, and this time, it focused on handling officials. If the government's handling hits the entire industry, it will be troublesome.