In the first half of the year, the growth of China's agricultural exports and imports slowed down, and the growth rate of trade deficit fell. Among them, the export of aquatic products, fruits and vegetables and other products increased significantly; the import of wine, beverages and meat products performed well. The price factor has affected the growth of imports and exports; companies are worried about policy changes and have accelerated the pace of exports; SMEs have been under greater pressure to survive; food safety incidents and trade frictions have increased. In 2011, the import and export of agricultural products showed a trend of “high before and after lowâ€, and the annual growth rate of imports and exports would be around 20%. Due to the high base last year, it is difficult to maintain a high growth rate of imports and exports.
In the first five months of this year, the growth rate of China's agricultural trade was higher than the overall growth of China's foreign trade, and the growth rate of imports and exports exceeded 30%.
From January to May 2011, the total import and export of agricultural products in China was 58.5 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 32% year-on-year, exceeding the overall increase of imports and exports of China's foreign trade (27.4%) by 4.6 percentage points. Among them, exports were US$23.6 billion, an increase of 32.6% year-on-year, and imports were US$34.9 billion, an increase of 31.6% year-on-year.
In the first half of the year, the growth of China's agricultural imports and exports slowed down. In the month of May, China's export of agricultural products was 4.9 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, and the growth rate of exports fell by 6.5 percentage points from the average growth rate of the previous four months. Imports amounted to US$7.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, and import growth only increased by 1.3 percentage points from the average growth rate in the previous four months.
From January to May, the agricultural trade deficit was 11.3 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 29.7% from the same period last year (8.7 billion U.S. dollars). However, compared with the growth rate of agricultural trade deficit in 2010 (77.6%), the growth rate has obviously declined.
Among them, the export of aquatic products, fruits and vegetables and other products increased significantly; the import of wine, beverages and meat products performed well.
From January to May, I exported 6.17 billion U.S. dollars of aquatic products, an increase of 34.6% year-on-year; exports of vegetables and their products were 5 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 43%; exports of fruits and their products were 2.74 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 35% year-on-year. The import of vegetable oil and oilseed oil was 15.13 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25%; the import of aquatic products was 2.18 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 23% year-on-year; and the increase in imports of wine, beverages, and meat products was more than 50%.
The growth rate of exports to Japan increased, and the growth rate of imports from Brazil declined. From January to May, I exported US$4.2 billion (accounting for 17.8%) to Japan, which was a year-on-year increase of 22%. Exports to ASEAN increased by 54%, exports to the EU increased by 28%, and exports to the United States increased by 26%. My export growth to Africa, Oceania, South America and the Commonwealth of Independent States all exceeded 30%. These emerging markets account for less than 20% of my total agricultural exports, and there is still room for greater growth in the future.
As of the end of May, China’s imports of agricultural products from the United States amounted to US$13.06 billion, an increase of 54% year-on-year; import from the ASEAN region was US$5.53 billion, an increase of 24% year-on-year; imports from Brazil were US$2.95 billion, an increase of 7% year-on-year.
The main characteristics of China's agricultural trade in the first half of this year are:
First, the price factor is about the growth of imports and exports.
From January to May 2011, the export volume index of all agricultural products decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, the price index increased by 19.7%; the import volume index of all agricultural products decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, and the price index increased by 30.7%. This shows that price growth is a major factor in the growth of imports and exports of agricultural products. In early May, global commodity prices fell in a round. Since then, the U.S. government has regulated high oil prices, causing commodities to plummet in June. At present, despite the rebound in commodity prices, the view that the market is short-lived is more common.
Second, companies are worried about policy changes and speed up the pace of exports.
The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the first half of the year was only 2%, and remained basically stable. However, enterprises are generally worried about the sharp appreciation of the exchange rate and the adjustment of export tax rebate policy, which has accelerated the pace of export. As the costs of raw materials, labor, financing, etc., rise together, the export operating costs of enterprises have increased sharply, but the ability to pass on costs has been weak. Some agricultural product export prices have risen much lower than the increase in raw material prices. Taking cashmere as an example, the current price of combed cashmere has increased from 400,000 yuan/ton last year to nearly 800,000 yuan/ton currently, and the price has almost doubled. From January to May, the average export price of cashmere and its products only increased by 44%, and the difference was mainly absorbed by export companies.
Third, SMEs have greater pressure for survival.
Since the international financial crisis occurred, foreign customers were more sensitive to the scale effect, quality control, and supply chain reaction speed. Orders had a tendency to concentrate on large companies, which increased the pressure for SMEs to survive. The tightening of domestic macro-control has exacerbated the financing difficulties of SMEs and forced them to turn to private credit markets for high-interest financing. SMEs are faced with many problems whether they are transforming their exports, upgrading their imports, or expanding their domestic sales. Some SMEs also reported that under the assessment of energy-saving emission reduction, environmental protection and other hard indicators, labor-intensive industries are no longer favored by local governments. Enterprises no longer enjoy preferential treatment in terms of taxes, land use indicators, electricity use indicators, and credit arrangements, which increases business pressure.
Fourth, the "food safety" incident and trade frictions have increased.
This year is a year of frequent "food safety" incidents. Since the beginning of this year, the incidents of "Clenbuterol", "Dyeing Taro", the storm of plasticizers in Taiwan and the "toxic cucumber" incident in Germany have erupted. On April 19, the European Commission announced an anti-dumping investigation of soy protein products imported from China. Japan’s order inspection of my poultry products has not been lifted. The United States still takes a protracted attitude towards the export of my poultry products. All these have made it more difficult for my company to export.
5. Imports of agricultural products such as wheat, feed and palm oil declined.
Despite the rare drought conditions in southern China this year, due to the continuous harvest of grain in China for seven consecutive years, the import of land-intensive agricultural products such as food has declined. From January to May, China imported 25,000 tons of corn, an increase of only 4.6% year-on-year; wheat imports were 275,000 tons, a year-on-year drop of 60.6%; feed fish meal imports were 346,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%.
From January to May, palm oil imports 1.571 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%. According to relevant data, the price of palm oil in April this year rose by 84.4% from the average price in 2008/2009, and the price nearly doubled in three years. High prices have inhibited the import of palm oil.
The industry actively carried out various food quality enhancement activities. According to the deployment of the Ministry of Commerce, the food and earth industry classified the quality of agricultural products as the key work of this year and actively carried out food and agricultural product quality activities.
The first is to play the role of an industry organization and strive to remove the poultry meat from Japan as soon as possible.
I will write to the Japanese authorities to introduce the current state of the poultry industry in China and the situation of Japan’s trade. I recommend that I go to Japan’s excellent poultry business and ask the Japanese to lift the order inspection as soon as possible. The companies we recommend to Japan must have the following conditions: In the past two years, more than 300 batches of poultry meat have been exported to Japan, and no member companies with furazolidone exceeded have been detected; indeed, the management responsibilities of export enterprises for farms have been implemented. The recommended companies must become users of the Chamber of Commerce’s joint veterinary drug procurement and quality traceability platform to effectively establish a traceability system for product quality.
The second is to strengthen international cooperation and promote export standards and international standards. The Food and Gas Merchants Association cooperated with the Japanese Imported Frozen Vegetable Association to jointly organize training on cross-assessment of pesticide residues testing technology and achieved good results. The Chamber of Commerce held a meeting on the export of peanuts to Japan in Qingdao, Shandong Province, focusing on issues related to safe and rational use of pesticides in peanut production in Japan and other countries, and proposed a solution.
The third is to promote edible fungus factory production. In the first half of this year, I will actively promote the cultivation of edible fungi in the industry. At present, there are more than twenty factory-built cultivation projects for edible fungus under construction and in China. In May, I will organize edible fungus companies to the Netherlands for on-site training and exchanges, so that relevant companies can fully experience the high efficiency and high quality brought about by the industrial production of edible fungi.
The fourth is to promote the quality of fish industry tracking platform. In order to respond effectively to the changes in American catfish import regulations and regulatory rights, I will set up a special working group to cooperate with professional e-commerce companies on the basis of research and develop an electronic platform for joint procurement and quality traceability of American salmon feed products. The platform can complete the monitoring of the entire process from seedling breeding to finished product export, so as to solve the problem of quality traceability of squid.
It is difficult to maintain a high growth rate of imports and exports in 2011. We expect that in 2011, the import and export of agricultural products will show a trend of “high before and after lowâ€, and the annual growth rate of imports and exports will be around 20%.
On the one hand, the high base last year makes it difficult to maintain a high growth rate of imports and exports. On the other hand, the recovery of the world economy may be repeated. The European Central Bank expects that the euro area's average inflation rate in 2011 will reach 2.3%. This means that inflation has spread from emerging markets to developed countries. It is expected that all countries will try their best to curb inflation in the second half of the year, but may have to pay the price of deceleration in economic growth.
This round of world economic recovery is a "no-employment" recovery, which puts the market in a state of "supply waiting for demand." Customers are very cautious when placing orders, high raw material prices cause companies to backlog and inventory, and have a counterproductive effect on commodity prices.
Affected by the unemployment rate and other factors, there will be some changes in the US economic growth in the second half of the year. Japan’s economic growth has slowed down significantly, and the debt crisis may have spread in euro zone countries. The impact of domestic macro-control on the import of agricultural products began to show. It is expected that the pulling effect of price factors on the import and export of agricultural products will be weakened in the second half of the year. At the same time, the prices of bulk agricultural products will remain at a certain high level due to factors such as natural climate, food policies of various countries, and international oil prices, which will play a supporting role in the import and export of agricultural products.
In the first five months of this year, the growth rate of China's agricultural trade was higher than the overall growth of China's foreign trade, and the growth rate of imports and exports exceeded 30%.
From January to May 2011, the total import and export of agricultural products in China was 58.5 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 32% year-on-year, exceeding the overall increase of imports and exports of China's foreign trade (27.4%) by 4.6 percentage points. Among them, exports were US$23.6 billion, an increase of 32.6% year-on-year, and imports were US$34.9 billion, an increase of 31.6% year-on-year.
In the first half of the year, the growth of China's agricultural imports and exports slowed down. In the month of May, China's export of agricultural products was 4.9 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, and the growth rate of exports fell by 6.5 percentage points from the average growth rate of the previous four months. Imports amounted to US$7.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, and import growth only increased by 1.3 percentage points from the average growth rate in the previous four months.
From January to May, the agricultural trade deficit was 11.3 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 29.7% from the same period last year (8.7 billion U.S. dollars). However, compared with the growth rate of agricultural trade deficit in 2010 (77.6%), the growth rate has obviously declined.
Among them, the export of aquatic products, fruits and vegetables and other products increased significantly; the import of wine, beverages and meat products performed well.
From January to May, I exported 6.17 billion U.S. dollars of aquatic products, an increase of 34.6% year-on-year; exports of vegetables and their products were 5 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 43%; exports of fruits and their products were 2.74 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 35% year-on-year. The import of vegetable oil and oilseed oil was 15.13 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25%; the import of aquatic products was 2.18 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 23% year-on-year; and the increase in imports of wine, beverages, and meat products was more than 50%.
The growth rate of exports to Japan increased, and the growth rate of imports from Brazil declined. From January to May, I exported US$4.2 billion (accounting for 17.8%) to Japan, which was a year-on-year increase of 22%. Exports to ASEAN increased by 54%, exports to the EU increased by 28%, and exports to the United States increased by 26%. My export growth to Africa, Oceania, South America and the Commonwealth of Independent States all exceeded 30%. These emerging markets account for less than 20% of my total agricultural exports, and there is still room for greater growth in the future.
As of the end of May, China’s imports of agricultural products from the United States amounted to US$13.06 billion, an increase of 54% year-on-year; import from the ASEAN region was US$5.53 billion, an increase of 24% year-on-year; imports from Brazil were US$2.95 billion, an increase of 7% year-on-year.
The main characteristics of China's agricultural trade in the first half of this year are:
First, the price factor is about the growth of imports and exports.
From January to May 2011, the export volume index of all agricultural products decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, the price index increased by 19.7%; the import volume index of all agricultural products decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, and the price index increased by 30.7%. This shows that price growth is a major factor in the growth of imports and exports of agricultural products. In early May, global commodity prices fell in a round. Since then, the U.S. government has regulated high oil prices, causing commodities to plummet in June. At present, despite the rebound in commodity prices, the view that the market is short-lived is more common.
Second, companies are worried about policy changes and speed up the pace of exports.
The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the first half of the year was only 2%, and remained basically stable. However, enterprises are generally worried about the sharp appreciation of the exchange rate and the adjustment of export tax rebate policy, which has accelerated the pace of export. As the costs of raw materials, labor, financing, etc., rise together, the export operating costs of enterprises have increased sharply, but the ability to pass on costs has been weak. Some agricultural product export prices have risen much lower than the increase in raw material prices. Taking cashmere as an example, the current price of combed cashmere has increased from 400,000 yuan/ton last year to nearly 800,000 yuan/ton currently, and the price has almost doubled. From January to May, the average export price of cashmere and its products only increased by 44%, and the difference was mainly absorbed by export companies.
Third, SMEs have greater pressure for survival.
Since the international financial crisis occurred, foreign customers were more sensitive to the scale effect, quality control, and supply chain reaction speed. Orders had a tendency to concentrate on large companies, which increased the pressure for SMEs to survive. The tightening of domestic macro-control has exacerbated the financing difficulties of SMEs and forced them to turn to private credit markets for high-interest financing. SMEs are faced with many problems whether they are transforming their exports, upgrading their imports, or expanding their domestic sales. Some SMEs also reported that under the assessment of energy-saving emission reduction, environmental protection and other hard indicators, labor-intensive industries are no longer favored by local governments. Enterprises no longer enjoy preferential treatment in terms of taxes, land use indicators, electricity use indicators, and credit arrangements, which increases business pressure.
Fourth, the "food safety" incident and trade frictions have increased.
This year is a year of frequent "food safety" incidents. Since the beginning of this year, the incidents of "Clenbuterol", "Dyeing Taro", the storm of plasticizers in Taiwan and the "toxic cucumber" incident in Germany have erupted. On April 19, the European Commission announced an anti-dumping investigation of soy protein products imported from China. Japan’s order inspection of my poultry products has not been lifted. The United States still takes a protracted attitude towards the export of my poultry products. All these have made it more difficult for my company to export.
5. Imports of agricultural products such as wheat, feed and palm oil declined.
Despite the rare drought conditions in southern China this year, due to the continuous harvest of grain in China for seven consecutive years, the import of land-intensive agricultural products such as food has declined. From January to May, China imported 25,000 tons of corn, an increase of only 4.6% year-on-year; wheat imports were 275,000 tons, a year-on-year drop of 60.6%; feed fish meal imports were 346,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%.
From January to May, palm oil imports 1.571 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%. According to relevant data, the price of palm oil in April this year rose by 84.4% from the average price in 2008/2009, and the price nearly doubled in three years. High prices have inhibited the import of palm oil.
The industry actively carried out various food quality enhancement activities. According to the deployment of the Ministry of Commerce, the food and earth industry classified the quality of agricultural products as the key work of this year and actively carried out food and agricultural product quality activities.
The first is to play the role of an industry organization and strive to remove the poultry meat from Japan as soon as possible.
I will write to the Japanese authorities to introduce the current state of the poultry industry in China and the situation of Japan’s trade. I recommend that I go to Japan’s excellent poultry business and ask the Japanese to lift the order inspection as soon as possible. The companies we recommend to Japan must have the following conditions: In the past two years, more than 300 batches of poultry meat have been exported to Japan, and no member companies with furazolidone exceeded have been detected; indeed, the management responsibilities of export enterprises for farms have been implemented. The recommended companies must become users of the Chamber of Commerce’s joint veterinary drug procurement and quality traceability platform to effectively establish a traceability system for product quality.
The second is to strengthen international cooperation and promote export standards and international standards. The Food and Gas Merchants Association cooperated with the Japanese Imported Frozen Vegetable Association to jointly organize training on cross-assessment of pesticide residues testing technology and achieved good results. The Chamber of Commerce held a meeting on the export of peanuts to Japan in Qingdao, Shandong Province, focusing on issues related to safe and rational use of pesticides in peanut production in Japan and other countries, and proposed a solution.
The third is to promote edible fungus factory production. In the first half of this year, I will actively promote the cultivation of edible fungi in the industry. At present, there are more than twenty factory-built cultivation projects for edible fungus under construction and in China. In May, I will organize edible fungus companies to the Netherlands for on-site training and exchanges, so that relevant companies can fully experience the high efficiency and high quality brought about by the industrial production of edible fungi.
The fourth is to promote the quality of fish industry tracking platform. In order to respond effectively to the changes in American catfish import regulations and regulatory rights, I will set up a special working group to cooperate with professional e-commerce companies on the basis of research and develop an electronic platform for joint procurement and quality traceability of American salmon feed products. The platform can complete the monitoring of the entire process from seedling breeding to finished product export, so as to solve the problem of quality traceability of squid.
It is difficult to maintain a high growth rate of imports and exports in 2011. We expect that in 2011, the import and export of agricultural products will show a trend of “high before and after lowâ€, and the annual growth rate of imports and exports will be around 20%.
On the one hand, the high base last year makes it difficult to maintain a high growth rate of imports and exports. On the other hand, the recovery of the world economy may be repeated. The European Central Bank expects that the euro area's average inflation rate in 2011 will reach 2.3%. This means that inflation has spread from emerging markets to developed countries. It is expected that all countries will try their best to curb inflation in the second half of the year, but may have to pay the price of deceleration in economic growth.
This round of world economic recovery is a "no-employment" recovery, which puts the market in a state of "supply waiting for demand." Customers are very cautious when placing orders, high raw material prices cause companies to backlog and inventory, and have a counterproductive effect on commodity prices.
Affected by the unemployment rate and other factors, there will be some changes in the US economic growth in the second half of the year. Japan’s economic growth has slowed down significantly, and the debt crisis may have spread in euro zone countries. The impact of domestic macro-control on the import of agricultural products began to show. It is expected that the pulling effect of price factors on the import and export of agricultural products will be weakened in the second half of the year. At the same time, the prices of bulk agricultural products will remain at a certain high level due to factors such as natural climate, food policies of various countries, and international oil prices, which will play a supporting role in the import and export of agricultural products.
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