Analysts say rising vegetable prices may not sustain the Mainland’s April CPI or decline to 3.3%

About 80% of the gains in the two and a half months have caused people to express their feelings of “a top jin and a half pork” for Chinese cabbage. However, analysts believe that this abnormal increase in vegetable prices is not sustainable, and consumer price levels will continue to decline.

There is no major holiday, no exposure and heavy rain, the demand for the real economy is still sluggish. The consumer price level that will be released this week in April does not seem to be the reason for much increase. By then, the year-on-year CPI and PPI data are likely to decline.

However, on the other hand, the residents' feelings do not seem to be the same. “The pork is only 10 yuan a pound, and a cabbage is sold for 15 yuan. They are all topped with a kilogram of pork.” This was a feeling sent by a citizen of Jinan, a city in Shandong, in an interview with Xinhua News Agency reporters on Friday.

According to the law of previous years, with the gradual warming of the weather, vegetables are accelerating into the growth, a large number of seasons listed, the prices tend to fall a lot. However, starting from late March of this year, although the price of vegetables in the country as a whole has shown a downward trend, the prices of various vegetables have continued to rise and reached new highs in recent years. The monitoring data showed that compared with February 20, 2012, the prices of Chinese cabbage, white radish, and carrot rose by 80.0%, 37.8%, and 32.1%, respectively, on May 6.

However, analysts believe that, except for some vegetable varieties, food prices have generally remained stable. However, rising vegetable prices will be difficult to sustain. This year, the general trend of inflation will not change. A report recently released by the Industrial Bank [14.22-0.56% share bar research report] believes that the April CPI increase is expected to be around 3.4%, and the April PPI is negative by 0.5% year-on-year. This also represents the general judgment of most organizations.

In the first four months of this year, the CPI trajectory will be jagged. China's CPI in the first three months of this year was 4.5%, 3.2%, and 3.6% respectively, showing a "V" trend. After the April price data is released, this trajectory is likely to become jagged and inflation will cool again, and may continue to decline in the second quarter.

According to Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, April’s CPI rose by about 3.3% year-on-year, a slight drop from March; CPI is expected to continue to decline in the second and third quarters, and there will be a fourth quarter The rise in the year-on-year CPI rose around 3.3%, which was a significant drop from last year.

According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Commerce, the prices of edible agricultural products in the first 3 weeks of April continued to fall, with prices of vegetables, meat and poultry dropping most significantly. The changes in food prices of the 50 major cities announced by the National Bureau of Statistics also showed that in late April, prices of 11 kinds of 27 major foods fell from the mid-term, with 3 types remaining flat and the rest rising.

The Chinese cabbage, which was jokingly known as selling pork prices, led the rise, rising by as much as 7.3% from ten days ago. However, other foods rose by about 1% to 2%.

Guotai Junan reported that recent food prices have rebounded but the increase in vegetable prices has been difficult to sustain. In April, the food prices of the Ministry of Commerce, Bureau of Statistics, and the Ministry of Agriculture fell by 1.8%, 0.8%, and 1.8% respectively in March. It is expected that the May CPI and April Flat, PPI continued to decline slightly.

In the institutional forecast of "Daily Economic News" reporter statistics, Gao Hua Securities's Song Yu is the most conservative institutional economist expected to decline in April CPI, he proposed the view that the inflation rate is higher than expected. "Food prices, especially vegetable prices, have fallen since mid-March but have rebounded in late April, which may cause the CPI inflation rate to be at a relatively high level."

Song Yu believes that it is expected that the increase in refined oil prices from March 20 onwards may also have some impact on the CPI inflation rate in April. It is expected that the CPI will fall slightly from 3.6% in March to 3.5% in April.

Although the judgments on specific data are slightly different, it is a consensus that it is difficult for the CPI to rebound in the second quarter. Peng Wensheng, chief economist of China National Gold Corporation, believes that the major trend of inflation this year will not change, but the CPI will be basically the same in the next two months, and will drop again obviously from June to July.

The economy will usher in a stable period of steady price cycles, and the economy is tending to rise steadily. With the warming of the weather, accelerated government investment and the gradual completion of destocking, the second quarter data is expected to lay the foundation for the economic rebound in the second half of the year.

The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in March was 11.9%. Institutions generally believe that April's data will be at least equal to this value, and may exceed it.

Ci Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, pointed out that from the perspective of leading indicators such as PMI, the proactive fiscal policy and the development of national infrastructure projects have led to the continued expansion of large enterprises, and the recovery has gradually been confirmed. . It is expected that the industrial growth rate will maintain the trend of fluctuation and recovery. In April, the industrial growth rate was around 11.7%.

On the same figure, UBS chief economist Wang Tao was more optimistic. She told the “Daily Economic News” reporter that with the advancement of social housing construction activities, real estate construction activities have rebounded and infrastructure investment has rebounded. With the improvement of order status, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value may rise to around 12.8% driven by heavy industry production.

However, insufficient demand is still the crux of the Chinese economy's difficulty in getting out of the downturn. Although many ministries and commissions such as the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology believe that the Chinese economy in the second quarter is better than the first quarter of this year, some indicators are still not optimistic.

In March, PPI was negative 0.3% year-on-year. It was the first time since December 2009 that the PPI was turned negative. The PPI is at the front end of the industrial chain, indicating that the total demand is not booming, further suggesting that the economic prosperity is relatively low and corporate profits are decreasing.

According to a research report on the blonde hair watch, due to the recent fall in commodity prices, while investment and consumer demand are still relatively weak, the price index for production materials and the price index for living materials rose slightly in April. According to the quantitative relationship between the PPI's chain growth rate and the purchase price index, the PPI is expected to increase by 0.2% QoQ, which is about minus 0.7% year-on-year, and the decline rate is larger than that in March.

In the mixed economic pattern, investment data and other production data are stabilizing, while the price data is subject to the demand and inventory cycle and continues to be weak. The policy side will undoubtedly be reduced to “steady growth”.

Wang Tao said that as inflation continues to slow down, monetary policy and fiscal policy will continue to be implemented in accordance with the established moderate and relaxed tone in the coming months, and credit growth will promote the rebound of fixed-asset investment, making the second quarter economic growth continue to rise.