In the absence of domestic corn green and yellow, corn supply is under pressure again, which is the main reason for the continuous rise in domestic spot prices since August. Especially in September, the transaction price of corn in the port of Guangdong has been rising continuously. From August 31 to September 6, the price has risen by RMB 60/ton, and it has risen by 2.4% in one week. The new corn is about to be harvested and listed. The price of corn can fall back and the market has doubts. The author believes that despite the high yield of corn this year, the supply of corn is still in a "balanced balance" and even the corn's gains will not change.
The increase in corn production is less than the increase in demand. The survey data from the National Grain and Oil Center shows that in the key growth period of domestic maize, most of the corn production areas have good conditions of light and temperature, suitable soil moisture, and good corn growth. Due to the increase in corn acreage and yield in China this year, the projected area of ​​corn planting is 33.15 million hectares, with a yield of 5,505 tons per hectare. The output is expected to reach a record high of 182.5 million tons, an increase of 5.255 million tons from the same period of last year. It is 2.9%. However, the consumption situation needs more attention. The data show that domestic consumption will reach 183.4 million tons in the current year, domestic corn still has a deficit of 900,000 tons, and the market structure of “closely balanced†supply will continue to push up corn prices.
In addition, the Grain and Oil Center expects China to import 2.5 million tons of foreign corn in 2011, an increase of 1 million tons compared with last year, while exports are still at 1 million tons, which is the same as last year. With the increase in imports, international corn prices will affect the domestic corn market.
The US corn production is worrying, and the import price continues to rise. This year, the US soybean and corn planting belt has encountered dry weather that has not been encountered for decades. The current weather conditions have not improved and the excellent rate of corn has been affected. The latest published data show that as of the week of August 28, the United States corn excellent rate was 54%, the previous week was 57%, compared with 70% in the same period last year. Far below the good rate of corn in the same period of last year, offsetting the negative pressure on the market caused by the increase in planting area, the US corn continued to hit a new high and the price approached the level of the financial crisis. At the same time, US Department of Agriculture data showed that global corn production in 2011/2012 was lower than market expectations, and the ratio of stocks to consumption was lower. The ratio of US corn inventories also reached a 10-year low of only 5.42%, reflecting the tight supply of corn. There is still room to go up.
As the US corn continues to rise, the duty-paid price of imported corn continues to hit new highs. The current duty-paid import price of imported corn in the United States in December has reached 2,770 yuan per ton, far higher than the 2,560 yuan in the southern port. Therefore, domestic corn prices still have room to rise.
With demand boosting, corn prices are expected to re-innovate even higher in the aquaculture industry. Although the pork price remained stable and weak in early August, the prices began to rise again in mid-August. The profitability of pig raising was higher, and the average profit per pig from self-produced slaughter was 708. yuan. For three months, the pig-to-farm ratio has been at a high of 8 to 1. Under the stimulation of good income, farmers are active in inventory, especially on large-scale pig farms. Because of their strong ability to resist the epidemic, the current number of live pigs has increased for five consecutive months. In addition to live pig production, poultry farming has also yielded huge profits, and the amount of stocks has continued to rise. Aquatic products are in peak season during the two seasons, and the demand for corn is expected to increase further.
In terms of deep processing, the current demand for starch at the terminal is still not significantly improved, and processing companies are still at a loss. However, the soaring sugar prices this year has led to strong demand for starch sugar. The profit of starch sugar is obviously better than that of sucrose, and the substitution advantage is obvious. In addition, COFCO promoted corn oil to the oil market. At present, corn oil consumption has increased significantly compared to previous years, and demand for corn has also increased. These two points are the main factors that increase the amount of industrial corn in the National Grain and Oil Center. At present, deep-processing enterprises are still raising prices under the condition of insufficient corn grain resources, and corn prices are expected to reach new heights.
In addition to the supply of corn will remain "closely balanced", due to the continuous increase in the level of domestic prices, corn planting costs are also increasing, the bottom of corn prices continue to rise. In addition, after the listing of the new grain, the farmers’ grain sales habits and the need of the state to make up the bank are expected to have a limited space for falling corn prices, which will show a steady upward trend.
The increase in corn production is less than the increase in demand. The survey data from the National Grain and Oil Center shows that in the key growth period of domestic maize, most of the corn production areas have good conditions of light and temperature, suitable soil moisture, and good corn growth. Due to the increase in corn acreage and yield in China this year, the projected area of ​​corn planting is 33.15 million hectares, with a yield of 5,505 tons per hectare. The output is expected to reach a record high of 182.5 million tons, an increase of 5.255 million tons from the same period of last year. It is 2.9%. However, the consumption situation needs more attention. The data show that domestic consumption will reach 183.4 million tons in the current year, domestic corn still has a deficit of 900,000 tons, and the market structure of “closely balanced†supply will continue to push up corn prices.
In addition, the Grain and Oil Center expects China to import 2.5 million tons of foreign corn in 2011, an increase of 1 million tons compared with last year, while exports are still at 1 million tons, which is the same as last year. With the increase in imports, international corn prices will affect the domestic corn market.
The US corn production is worrying, and the import price continues to rise. This year, the US soybean and corn planting belt has encountered dry weather that has not been encountered for decades. The current weather conditions have not improved and the excellent rate of corn has been affected. The latest published data show that as of the week of August 28, the United States corn excellent rate was 54%, the previous week was 57%, compared with 70% in the same period last year. Far below the good rate of corn in the same period of last year, offsetting the negative pressure on the market caused by the increase in planting area, the US corn continued to hit a new high and the price approached the level of the financial crisis. At the same time, US Department of Agriculture data showed that global corn production in 2011/2012 was lower than market expectations, and the ratio of stocks to consumption was lower. The ratio of US corn inventories also reached a 10-year low of only 5.42%, reflecting the tight supply of corn. There is still room to go up.
As the US corn continues to rise, the duty-paid price of imported corn continues to hit new highs. The current duty-paid import price of imported corn in the United States in December has reached 2,770 yuan per ton, far higher than the 2,560 yuan in the southern port. Therefore, domestic corn prices still have room to rise.
With demand boosting, corn prices are expected to re-innovate even higher in the aquaculture industry. Although the pork price remained stable and weak in early August, the prices began to rise again in mid-August. The profitability of pig raising was higher, and the average profit per pig from self-produced slaughter was 708. yuan. For three months, the pig-to-farm ratio has been at a high of 8 to 1. Under the stimulation of good income, farmers are active in inventory, especially on large-scale pig farms. Because of their strong ability to resist the epidemic, the current number of live pigs has increased for five consecutive months. In addition to live pig production, poultry farming has also yielded huge profits, and the amount of stocks has continued to rise. Aquatic products are in peak season during the two seasons, and the demand for corn is expected to increase further.
In terms of deep processing, the current demand for starch at the terminal is still not significantly improved, and processing companies are still at a loss. However, the soaring sugar prices this year has led to strong demand for starch sugar. The profit of starch sugar is obviously better than that of sucrose, and the substitution advantage is obvious. In addition, COFCO promoted corn oil to the oil market. At present, corn oil consumption has increased significantly compared to previous years, and demand for corn has also increased. These two points are the main factors that increase the amount of industrial corn in the National Grain and Oil Center. At present, deep-processing enterprises are still raising prices under the condition of insufficient corn grain resources, and corn prices are expected to reach new heights.
In addition to the supply of corn will remain "closely balanced", due to the continuous increase in the level of domestic prices, corn planting costs are also increasing, the bottom of corn prices continue to rise. In addition, after the listing of the new grain, the farmers’ grain sales habits and the need of the state to make up the bank are expected to have a limited space for falling corn prices, which will show a steady upward trend.
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